“When the U.S. falls into a recession, a credit bubble will explode.” This is outside my typical purview, but it has been long enough since the last recession for everyone to have forgotten its lessons. In the mid-2000s, I knew lots of ballers who were buying very expensive cars and a lot of stupid people who suddenly got into “flipping” houses, because real estate is a can’t-lose proposition, right?
Except for the way real estate value tanked in ’91. The way it eroded in value during inflation in the ’70s. The way it really fell in the ’30s. Even in the ’01 recession, it at best held steady.
A lot of those ballers in the mid-2000s were bankrupt by 2009. Right now, I’m seeing a lot of the same signs: stupid people eager to get into real estate. Too many cars being bought relative to the number of drivers. Student loan debt problems are already well known.
You make a lot of money by being bold when everyone else cowers, and by being cowardly when everyone else is bold. Right now it seems like a lot of people are bold… I’m going to cower over here in the corner and let the ballers do their thing. People with cash on hand during recessions can make the real money. I wasn’t able to do so last time. I might not be able to do so this time.
Part of game is standing apart from the herd. The same thing is true in financial markets. Most guys never learn about 1. Game. 2. Evolutionary biology. 3. Cooking/food. 4. Finances. Schools don’t teach this, and parents frequently don’t: we then pay for ignorance throughout our lives.